Boehner's resignation will be test to see if Tea Party is more 'bark or bite,' KU professor says

LAWRENCE — House Speaker John Boehner unexpectedly announced Friday morning he would resign his leadership post and give up his congressional seat by the end of October.

The Ohio Republican who has served in various House leadership positions since 1991 has received pressure in recent years from the more conservative Tea Party faction within the House and has often taken the brunt of criticism that Congress was too partisan and dysfunctional.

A University of Kansas political science professor is available to discuss the political implications of Boehner's resignation and the GOP leadership race to replace him.

Patrick Miller, assistant professor of political science, studies American politics and attitudes of partisanship among other topics, and he has served as lead author on studies about gender and compromise and partisan rivalry.

Q: What are the important things to remember regarding Boehner's relationship with more conservative house members or Tea Party Republicans?

Miller: The Republican Party in Congress is intensely factionalized these days, mainly between Tea Party affiliated members who are more ultraconservative and uncompromising versus more "establishment" Republicans who are often less rigidly ideological and more compromise-oriented.

Boehner comes more from the establishment wing and has long been a target of criticism from the Tea Party. In practice, though, they have never successfully ousted him as speaker, and not that many Republicans have actually voted against him as speaker. So as of yet that discontent has not translated into real numerical power, and Boehner has had zero problems exacting revenge within the House on those who have been critical of him.

Q: That said, with a partial government shutdown looming, what could his resignation mean for those negotiations with Democrats and ability to get Republican votes?

Miller: Boehner knows he will probably have to abandon the idea to de-fund Planned Parenthood — a political goal of Tea Party and social conservative members of Congress — and strike a compromise with President Barack Obama to avoid a shutdown. The de-funding idea is not a high priority of establishment Republicans and not even necessarily something they support. The Tea Party is still angry at Boehner for supposedly caving on the last shutdown and related debt ceiling negotiations. Maybe he thinks he can't survive another round like that, so walking away now gives him the flexibility to compromise with no consequence personally. In that sense, he may be doing Republicans a favor. He falls on his sword by taking heat from his right but saves Republicans from getting blamed for another shutdown and gets positive personal headlines for striking a deal.

Q: What are the important things to watch as the GOP caucus selects the new speaker?

Miller: With Boehner now out of the way, the interesting thing to watch will be seeing how many Republicans might get behind a Tea Party candidate for speaker. Certainly there are many establishment Republicans who names have surfaced as potential successors, but fewer Tea Party candidates. So this will be an opportunity to see whether the Tea Party in the House is more bark or more bite.

Of course, Republicans run a big risk if they select a successor who is rigidly ideological and anti-compromise. The public in polling sees both parties as responsible for gridlock in Washington but consistently blames the Republicans more for that than the Democrats. For example polling has consistently shown that the public sees the Republicans as the party more opposed to compromise, and the public has been more willing to blame the Republicans for real or possible government shutdowns. So Republicans will have to decide whether choosing a more rigid speaker is worth the risk of reinforcing a negative public perception of their party that could play into the Democrats' hands.

To arrange an interview with Miller, contact George Diepenbrock at gdiepenbrock@ku.edu or 785-864-8853.