Media advisory: Professor can discuss New York primary scenarios

LAWRENCE — A University of Kansas political scientist is available to discuss the New York presidential primary contests and how scenarios could influence each party's nomination process.

New Yorkers head to the polls as Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton is seeking a victory over Bernie Sanders, and Donald Trump, who leads the delegate count for the Republicans, is looking to stay in front of Ted Cruz and John Kasich.

Patrick Miller, assistant professor of political science, monitors national polling made available and tweets analysis at Twitter.com/pmiller1693. His broad research interests include national politics and attitudes of partisanship.

Q: If polls are correct and Trump will win New York, why is it more important he get 50 percent of the vote both statewide and in congressional districts?

Miller: If a Republican candidate gets 50 percent at either one of those levels, then that person gets all of the delegates for the state or district rather than those delegates being allocated proportionally to candidates based on their vote percentage. So, there is a very real possibility that Trump could win all or almost all of New York's delegates today. If Trump does extremely well there, then that lowers the bar on what he needs to win in future contests like Indiana and California.

Q: If he does get all the New York delegates, could Trump avoid a contested convention?

Miller: Critically, the Trump campaign has dropped the ball on being organized in caucus states. That has cost him dearly in caucuses and allowed Cruz to accumulate a lot of delegates from those states. It is too early to speak definitively, but those caucus losses have made it harder for Trump to win the nomination outright on the first ballot at the convention.

So even if Trump wins all New York delegates today, it is still more probable than not that there will be a contested convention with Trump going in as the delegate and popular vote leader. But a strong New York win will help him cement the image as the choice of average partisans, and that may weigh on party delegates and leaders in the long run.

Q: On the Democratic side, what does Sanders need in New York?

Miller: The Democratic race is closer than the Republican race, but Clinton has maintained a lead of about 10 points. Democratic primaries allocate delegates proportionally, so New York and all future contests have to be seen in light of the large pledged delegate deficit Sanders has.

To change the numbers game and make inroads on that Clinton lead, Sanders must win New York by a landslide. A close Sanders win or even a Sanders win of 10 points would still be a loss for him because that wouldn't change the delegate proportions enough.

Sanders has done well in caucuses, but almost every Democratic race left is a primary where turnout is more favorable to Clinton. So the Sanders winning streak in small, generally more white states is likely coming to an end tonight as we get into a part of the calendar with more primaries in more racially diverse states.

Public polling right now has Sanders losing in almost every upcoming primary where we have a poll. His only path to victory is to win every single contest left by a landslide. So anything less than that in New York reinforces the basic math that the Democratic contest is over.

To arrange an interview with Miller, contact George Diepenbrock at 785-864-8853 or gdiepenbrock@ku.edu.