Thursday's 'Brexit' vote likely to be 'very close,' European politics scholar says

LAWRENCE — As Britons prepare to head to the polls Thursday to vote on the so-called "Brexit" — whether to leave or remain in the European Union — a University of Kansas expert says with such tight polls it's impossible to tell what will decide the referendum.

Robert Rohrschneider, the Sir Robert Worcester Distinguished Professor of Political Science, has written about political skepticism toward European Union membership and the potential influence nationalism could have after the recent financial and migration crises. Rohrschneider is currently serving as a Fulbright visiting professor at Pembroke College, University of Oxford, and recently participated in a symposium in London that discussed the "Brexit" vote.

Q: What is your assessment of the polling right now? It seems close, perhaps with “Leave” now ahead. 

Rohrschneider: It is very close, a statistical tie. Remain — supporters of EU membership — may have a slight edge if only because the status quo is often the preferred outcome when voters choose between two alternatives where the consequences of one outcome are known — EU membership — and those of the other one are uncertain — leaving the EU. However, it is impossible to tell at this point what voters will ultimately decide in Thursday's referendum. 

Q: Is it surprising that it is this close?

Rohrschneider: Not surprising at all. Polls conducted some months ago suggested a clear win for Remain, but that was before the referendum campaign began in earnest. The effects of a campaign depend a lot on the skills of campaigners, the credibility of arguments advanced by competitors, and unanticipated events like the murder of Jo Cox, the Labor MP. 

As the campaign unfolded, the Remain campaign has nearly exclusively relied on an argument about the economic costs of leaving the EU. However, it failed to provide voters with a positive outlook of what staying in the EU means for Britain. Moreover, many voters have a deeply felt antipathy about the loss of sovereignty and identity that Britain has experienced since joining the EU — a fact that the Leave campaign tried to use to advance its position.

Q: What are the key factors to watch for in the final week as the two sides campaign?

Rohrschneider: Unanticipated events like the murder of Jo Cox. This actually may have subtly supported the Remain camp. If another dreadful event occurs, it may further influence the outcome.

Q: If Britain does leave, what do you see as the future of the EU and Europe politically?

Rohrschneider: The U.K. Leaving would be a wake-up call for the European Union. It would focus more on "deliverables"— producing tangible policy outcomes like securing borders — than further integrating Europe politically. In Britain, in turn, most economists predict a permanent loss of GDP of at least 2 percent.

Q: Why do polls have such difficulty in predicting the outcome?

Rohrschneider: Polling is notoriously difficult in the British referendum as there is no prior experience that pollsters can rely on as a benchmark to understand snapshot patterns uncovered before the actual referendum. In addition, online polls often suggest a different outcome than person-to-person calls, in part because each relies on partly different types of panels they generalize from. So they don't know whether movements in one direction or another are meaningful indicators for the final outcome. 

To arrange an interview with Rohrschneider, contact George Diepenbrock at 785-864-8853 or gdiepenbrock@ku.edu.