Addressing ISIS affiliates in Libya, Asia will be crucial to anti-terrorism policy, researcher says

LAWRENCE — After the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria took responsibility this week for attacks in Iran, it marked the fourth major terrorist attack in recent weeks after Manchester, London and in the Philippines.

International news reports have speculated ISIS may be seeking to inspire more attacks across the world in response to its recent loss of territory in fighting in Iraq and Syria.

Don Haider-Markel, professor and chair of the University of Kansas Department of Political Science, is available to speak about issues surrounding recent ISIS-inspired attacks in various countries. Haider-Markel's research includes terrorism, public policy and U.S. politics.

"I wouldn't say this is a shift in strategy. ISIS has consistently distinguished itself by trying to inspire and/or coordinate attacks outside of the caliphate. ISIS leaders do not have a strong ability to increase or decrease the number of attacks because most of the attacks have been opportunity based," Haider-Markel said. "For me, the recent attacks illustrate the growing importance of ISIS factions in Libya, which many anticipated, and the growing willingness of ISIS affiliates to carry out attacks in the Philippines and Iran."

He said the Iranian attacks were likely the most difficult to execute because they occurred in urban areas in a country that makes it very challenging for ISIS to operate effectively, let alone carry out coordinated attacks.

"Going forward, this pattern will be the norm since ISIS won't have the same territory and resources that it had in the past. Affiliates in Libya and Asia will rise in importance, and it will be crucial for the U.S. and other allies to address those types of groups," Haider-Markel said. "The same pattern happened with al-Qaida post-invasion of Afghanistan in the 2000s. It declined in relevance and al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula, AQAP, in Yemen became the most active affiliate with the ability to plan and execute attacks."