Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu will be reelected, expert predicts

LAWRENCE – It will take a few days after the March 23 national election — Israel’s fourth in two years — before results are finalized, but “master of his domain” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is highly likely to come out on top again, according to an expert on Israeli demographics.

Rami Zeedan is an assistant professor of Jewish studies at the University of Kansas and a member of Israel’s Druze minority, and he has written extensively about Arab voting patterns within the Jewish state. He is available to journalists to comment before or after the election. 

Netanyahu effectively splitting off one of the small parties, breaking up the Arab Joint List opposing him this time, is but one example of his political mastery, Zeedan said in a recent interview. Israel’s political landscape is famously fractured, and Netanyahu, also known as "Bibi," takes advantage of this, Zeedan said. More than 30 parties are running now, of whom Zeedan said 14 have a realistic chance to pass the minimum threshold of 3.25% of the vote to gain seats in the Knesset.

At least, Zeedan said, this race is more interesting than the last couple of elections.

“Last time we believed there were eight parties that safely would get seats, which is what happened at the end,” Zeedan said.

The Jewish studies researcher said that of the 14 parties with realistic chances, there are six parties hovering around the threshold of viability.

Zeedan predicts at least one of these parties, and possibly up to four, will not clear the threshold, despite gaining a considerable number of votes – as many as 130,000 each. These are termed “wasted votes” and are not counted toward the final allocation of seats.

“Since this is going to be a close election, even a handful of votes can tip the point for these four parties,” Zeedan said. “If they pass or not, it will change the distribution of seats to the other parties.”

Restrictions imposed by the COVID-19 pandemic will contribute to delays of a week or so in determining the final result following election day, Zeedan said. In the past, voting by what are called “double envelopes” was allowed only for Israeli soldiers, diplomats overseas, hospital patients and prisoners. This year, those “double envelopes” will double because of the pandemic. More people will be allowed to vote at polls other than the one designated for them. For example, there are special voting stations for those sick with COVID-19 and those in quarantine.

“Netanyahu is very close to getting the 61 seats to guarantee himself a right-religious-wing coalition, without the need for any centrist or left-wing parties,” Zeedan said. “That would mean that he would continue as prime minister, and maybe even enact new laws that would cancel his corruption trial that already started.

“You would need some weird combination and some luck for the other side to put him out of power this time. ... He is the master of this domain. He has done this repeatedly in the past few years, and he will do it again.”

In conclusion, Zeedan said, “what I see is Netanyahu doing whatever he can — and more than what is allowed and what he is not allowed to do — in order to remain prime minister and to influence the progress of his own trial.”

To interview Zeedan, contact Rick Hellman, KU News Service public affairs officer, at 913-620-8786 or rick_hellman@ku.edu.