Expert can comment on Israeli moves to defend Syrian Druze, election outlook

LAWRENCE — The kabuki theatre of two ultra-Orthodox Jewish parties formally abandoning the ruling coalition has no immediate practical effect on Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu.

And despite his having alienated them with his support for the 2018 Nation-State Law, Israel’s Druze religious minority might be more inclined to back Bibi now as a result of his recent military moves to protect their kinfolk in southern Syria.

These are the opinions of Rami Zeedan, who is a Druze native of Israel and author of the 2019 book “Arab-Palestinian Society in the Israeli Political System: Integration Versus Segregation in the Twenty-First Century.” He is an associate professor of Jewish studies at the University of Kansas and founding editor-in-chief of the Druze Studies Journal.

He is available to reporters to comment on the situation of the Druze in the region based on his extensive research into their political and social leanings, and about Israel’s election and politics more broadly.

“The current mini-crisis is likely a staged one,” Zeedan said. “It is highly unlikely these parties will vote anytime soon to overthrow the government or support early elections. Thus, it is more of a pressure tactic than a real break from Likud or Netanyahu. Rather, this is an ideal time for the ultra-Orthodox to negotiate a solution to their problem, which is the new law ordering them to be conscripted into the Israeli Defense Forces.”

The ultra-Orthodox have traditionally not served in the Israeli army, the rationale being that their religious studies are a form of national service.

It's impossible to say what will happen between now and Oct. 19, when the Knesset reconvenes for its next session. A vote for early elections or to overthrow the government would be unlikely to occur before then, if at all, given that the Knesset goes into recess July 27. In October or later, such a decision could be made, or elections could still happen on their scheduled time in late 2026. 

One scenario described by Zeedan that could lead to early elections is: “An end to the Gaza war or bringing home some or all of the Israeli hostages. These, or other developments, could boost Netanyahu’s assessment of a favorable public opinion, which could convince him to go for early elections, regardless of the issue with the ultra-Orthodox.”

Druze in focus

Whenever Israel holds its next elections, its Druze community will have had its opinions affected by all of the Jewish state’s recent cross-border conflicts, but especially its foray into Syria, ostensibly to stop the persecution of that religious minority by the new Syrian leader, Ahmed Al-Sharaa.

Like the Druze community in Israel proper, the 25,000 Druze who live in the Golan Heights, which Israel occupied in the 1967 war and annexed in 1981, find themselves more and more Israeli and less attached to Syria, Zeedan said.

This is despite Israel’s bloody reprisals against Palestinian militants in Gaza since the terror assault of Oct. 7, 2023, and ongoing conflicts in the West Bank.

Zeedan sees Netanyahu’s campaign against al-Sharaa’s persecution of the Druze in the southern province of Suweida as part of a long-term strategy to drive a wedge between the Druze and their Arab brethren.

“I see that many Israeli Druze are using less Arabic and more a combination of Hebrew and Arabic, oftentimes Arabic words written in Hebrew alphabet,” Zeedan said. “Many of them identify less and less as Arabs. They see the benefits of modernity with Israel.

“The continuous military conscription, the fully mobilized education system and the Hebrew media are contributing to this Israeli success in its policy to integrate the Druze and separate them from the Arabs.

“The recent developments in the region are indeed moving the perceptions among Druze of the Golan in the same direction. I see this as a pattern that could emerge elsewhere.

“It is up to the Syrian people and the new government to make sure that it is inclusive to all its communities — that Druze, Alawites, Kurds and others — to feel that they are protected, welcomed, represented and have a share in building the new Syria. This is, unfortunately, not the case so far, and it opens the door for others to push communities to reevaluate their position.”